Projected profit
How the Bet overview estimates what your open bets are worth in dollars before they settle — the gauge, what counts toward it, and what is left out.
What projected profit is
Projected profit is our best estimate, in dollars, of what your open bets are worth before any of them settle. It is the headline number in the center of the Bet overview gauge.
It is not a payout and it is not a promise. It is the expected value of what you are holding: for each open bet we take its win probability, weigh it against your stake and the odds you got, and add it all up. A bet priced better than its true chances pushes the number up; a bet where you are getting the worse of the price pulls it down. Projected profit reflects the expected value of your open bets based on the prices and probabilities at the time. Expected value is a statistical estimate, not a prediction — individual bets and overall results can and do lose, and results vary.
The gauge
The gauge around the number splits your slate into the part that is helping you and the part that is hurting. It shades green for the bets contributing positively and red for the bets contributing negatively, so you can see at a glance whether your open action is leaning your way, even when the net number is close to zero.
While SmartStake is still fetching prices for your bets, the gauge shows a brief loading state instead of a number — that is the "pricing" moment, not an error. The overview refreshes prices on its own roughly every 30 seconds, so the figure keeps pace as lines move.
What counts, and what doesn't
A few rules govern what feeds the total:
- Free bets are valued by what they are expected to return, since you have no cash at risk on them.
- Fantasy slips show a win probability per pick, but they are left out of the projected-profit dollar total. Their payout-tier structure does not reduce to a single straight-bet number the way a single or parlay does.
- Bets we cannot price — an obscure market, or a selection missing from the sharp data — simply do not contribute. They are not counted as zero; they are left out of the math entirely, the same as their win probability ring reading unavailable.
- Only open bets count. Once a bet settles it moves out of projected profit and into your real, settled results on the Performance page.
Projected vs actual
Projected profit is forward-looking — what your open bets are worth in expectation. Your actual, banked profit and loss lives in Profit, ROI and calendar and only ever reflects settled wagers.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.