Finding positive EV bets
How the Positive EV tool surfaces bets whose book odds beat the fair no-vig price, and how to read expected value, fair odds, and the books behind each line.
What positive EV means
A bet has positive expected value (positive EV, or +EV) when the odds a sportsbook offers are better than the bet's true probability of winning warrants. Place many +EV bets and, over a large enough sample, the expected value is positive — though any single bet, or a run of them, can lose.
SmartStake estimates the true probability by blending your selected sharp books' prices and removing the margin (the "vig") to get a fair, no-vig price. When a book's offered odds pay more than that fair price implies, the difference is your edge, and the bet appears in the Positive EV tool.
Where the fair price comes from
SmartStake blends the available two-sided odds from your selected sharp books using their configured weights, then removes the vig with your chosen devig method. A line must meet your required-book and Min Sharps settings.
Positive EV defaults to a 10% Max Vig limit on the blended prices. This helps exclude very wide markets whose fair-price estimates can create misleadingly large EV figures. You can change the limit in Filters & settings.
This is the same fair-value calculation the Fantasy tool reuses for its Custom devig source — the math lives in one place so both tools agree.
Reading the feed
The Positive EV feed lists one row per qualifying bet. Each row shows:
- The bet — the team or player, the market (e.g. moneyline, spread, total, a player prop), and the line.
- The book and price — which sportsbook is offering the +EV odds, and at what price.
- Expected value — the edge, expressed as a percentage of your stake. Higher EV means a larger modelled long-run return per dollar staked.
- Fair odds — the no-vig price SmartStake computed. The gap between the book price and the fair price is what creates the EV.
Sort by EV to see the strongest edges first. For how each column is calculated and how to filter the feed, see Reading the table.
Taking a bet
When you find a bet you want, take it. SmartStake opens a slip pre-filled with the book, market, line, and a suggested stake. Confirming records the bet as a tracked wager, so the Bet Tracker can grade it once the game settles and fold the result into your profit and loss.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Using a “sharp” book as a fair-value reference is a modeling choice, not a statement of accuracy. Review a book’s record yourself and anchor on the books you trust.