Prediction markets
What prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are, how their prices map to probabilities and odds, and why tracking skilled traders on them is an edge.
What a prediction market is
A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts that pay out based on a real-world outcome — who wins a game, an election, an award. A contract settles at $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its current price reads directly as a probability: a contract trading at 62¢ means the market collectively prices that outcome at about 62%. Polymarket and Kalshi are the two largest for sports-adjacent events.
Because the price is a probability, it converts straight to betting odds. A 62¢ contract is the same as decimal odds of about 1.61 (1 ÷ 0.62), which lets you compare a prediction market's number against a sportsbook's line on the same event and spot disagreements.
Why the traders matter
Prediction markets are public and pseudonymous: every trade is tied to a wallet, and a wallet's full history is visible. That makes it possible to find traders with a long, broad, genuinely profitable record — and to watch what they buy. A move from a wallet that has been right across hundreds of markets is a far stronger signal than one from an anonymous, untested account.
This is the idea behind tracking "insider" wallets: not inside information in any illicit sense, but identifying demonstrably skilled participants and following their positions, weighted by how much you trust the record behind them.
From concept to tool
SmartStake qualifies sharp wallets (a real track record across many markets) and surfaces their moves. See What Insiders is and Picks & the confidence score.
A wallet's past performance is a track record, not a promise — markets shift and even sharp traders have cold streaks. Treat a tracked move as evidence, sized against your own confidence.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Daily fantasy and prediction-market availability, legality, and minimum age vary by jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you live.