Wallets & the leaderboard
Browse the ranked list of qualified Polymarket wallets, understand what the Backtest and Forward ROI columns measure, dig into a wallet's detail panel, and control which wallets feed your Picks.
The wallet leaderboard
Switching the Insiders toolbar to Wallets mode replaces the Picks feed with a ranked list of every qualified wallet. Each qualified wallet is a Polymarket proxy address that has passed the backend's daily audit — at least 200 distinct sports markets traded, directional ROI of 1% or better, and an arb ratio no higher than 50%.
The leaderboard is the place to get a feel for the trader pool before you decide which wallets to let into your Picks feed.
Backtest ROI and Forward ROI
Every wallet card shows two ROI figures side by side, labelled Backtest and Forward.
Backtest ROI reflects the wallet's historical performance on directional sports positions that settled before the date SmartStake admitted the wallet. It is frozen at qualification time and never changes. It answers the question: does this trader have edge over a large sample? Only directional positions count — arbs are excluded — so the figure isolates the wallet's skill on committed picks rather than hedged plays.
Forward ROI is not the wallet's performance. It is SmartStake's out-of-sample accuracy using that wallet's signals: directional sports positions settled after the qualification date. It is recomputed daily as new bets settle. It answers a different question: does the model still pay when signals from this wallet are used in real time?
Past results are not a promise
The 47% ROI figure cited in documentation is a backtest result at a confidence threshold of 90 with a one-minute delay. It describes what happened in a controlled historical test, not what your returns will be. Forward ROI fluctuates as new positions settle and will differ from the backtest.
When a wallet has no forward-test positions yet, the card falls back to its backtest values and shows a Backtest tag so you can tell the difference at a glance. The default sort order is Backtest ROI, but you can re-sort by Forward ROI or by total positions using the sort dropdown in the top-right corner of the leaderboard.
Filters
Four filters let you narrow the leaderboard to wallets that suit your criteria:
- Sport — re-keys every card to a single sport's metrics and re-ranks the list by that sport's ROI. This is not a row filter; all wallets remain visible, but the ROI and position counts shown reflect only that sport's bucket.
- Min bets — hides wallets with fewer qualifying directional positions than the threshold. Default is 10.
- Min ROI — hides wallets below a minimum ROI percentage.
- Max arb ratio — hides wallets whose proportion of arb markets exceeds a ceiling you set. A low ceiling keeps the list to traders with predominantly directional conviction.
Opening a wallet's detail panel
Clicking any wallet card opens its detail panel. On desktop the panel slides in to the right of the list; on mobile it opens as a bottom drawer.
The header of the detail panel shows the same Backtest / Forward ROI pair in larger type, along with the wallet's win-loss record and win rate from the backtest window. Below the header, a stat grid compares both windows across three dimensions: total volume wagered (cost basis), average stake per position, and realized PnL. These figures come from a historical backtest window, are not typical, and are not indicative of your results.
The Historical section below the stat grid lists additional context from the qualification audit: total positions across all Polymarket markets, total sports positions, the win-loss record, an adjusted ROI that excludes arbs, a pregame-only ROI, and the overall arb ratio.
The Sport breakdown section shows per-sport wins, losses, and ROI. A toggle lets you switch between the backtest and forward-test windows, so you can see whether a wallet's edge in, say, basketball holds up in the forward window or is confined to history.
The Recent bets section lists the wallet's most recent settled Polymarket picks — the event, the selection taken, the date, the entry odds (converted to American format), and the USDC stake. This gives you a concrete feel for how the wallet actually bets before you act on its signals.
Tracking and untracking a wallet
Every wallet card and the detail panel header show a Track toggle. Wallets are tracked by default, meaning their picks appear in your Insiders Picks feed. Untracking a wallet removes that wallet's picks from the feed without deleting any data.
The untracked list is stored locally on the device you use to toggle it. If you use SmartStake on multiple devices, each device maintains its own list independently. Newly qualified wallets always start as tracked, so your feed grows automatically as the pool expands unless you explicitly untrack new entrants.
To restore a wallet to the feed, click the same toggle again. The change takes effect immediately — no page refresh required.
For more on how confidence scores and pick timing interact with the feed you see, see Picks & confidence. To understand what the order book beneath a pick is showing, see the Order book guide.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Any numbers, screenshots, and worked examples shown are illustrative only. They are not representative of typical results and your results may differ.