Fantasy optimizer overview
How SmartStake's Fantasy tool finds edges on DFS pick'em sites by pricing their over/under lines against the same no-vig fair-value math that powers Positive EV.
What the Fantasy tool does
Daily fantasy pick'em sites like PrizePicks and Underdog post player-prop lines as over/under bets — you pick a side, build a slip of two to six picks, and the site pays out based on how many you get right. What the sites don't advertise is their built-in margin: just like a sportsbook, the posted line is not the true probability. SmartStake's Fantasy tool compares those pick'em lines against a fair, no-vig price derived from real sportsbook odds, so you can see which picks are priced in your favour.
The idea is the same as Positive EV betting: when a line's implied probability is lower than its true probability, the pick has positive expected value. Stacking +EV picks aims to improve expected value over time; this does not guarantee a profit, and any slip, or a series of slips, can lose.
How the comparison works
For each player prop a DFS site offers, SmartStake fetches the equivalent line from sportsbooks that price that market. It then deviggs those sportsbook odds — stripping out the book's margin using one of five mathematical methods — to produce a fair probability for the over and under. That fair price is the benchmark.
The DFS site's line lands somewhere relative to that benchmark. If a site is offering a line where the true probability of hitting the over is meaningfully higher than their implied payout suggests, that's an edge worth building around. SmartStake computes an expected value for each qualifying pick and surfaces the ones where the numbers work.
Same math, different format
The fair-value calculation here is the same engine powering the Positive EV tool. The difference is structure: a sportsbook bet is one-sided, while a DFS pick always has a pick'em line and a payout tier table that determines what you win for hitting N-of-N picks.
Power and Flex slips
DFS sites offer two basic slip formats. A Power slip is all-or-nothing: you must hit every pick to win the stated multiplier. A Flex (or insured) slip pays on a graduated scale — miss one or two picks and you still collect a reduced payout. SmartStake models both formats and calculates what the slip needs to break even, which lets you compare slips on the same terms as single EV bets.
For a full walkthrough of building slips and reading the breakeven and expected-value figures, see Building Power and Flex slips.
Where the fair price comes from
By default, SmartStake chooses the reference books automatically (the Default devig source), using an aggregate fair price built from the sharpest available sportsbook markets. If you want full control, switching to Custom lets you specify exactly which sharp books feed the fair-value calculation — the same sharp book selection available in Positive EV. For more on how devig source affects the comparison, see Fantasy devig source.
The devig method — power, multiplicative, additive, probit, or worst — controls how the margin is removed from the sportsbook line before it becomes a fair probability. These methods are covered in Devigging and fair value.
Progressive lines
Some DFS sites offer alternate thresholds — a player's passing yards line at one number versus another. SmartStake surfaces these as progressive lines, letting you compare the edge across different thresholds for the same stat. See Reading progressive lines for how to interpret them.
Premium access
The Fantasy tool is a Premium feature. You can explore the tool during a free trial.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Daily fantasy and prediction-market availability, legality, and minimum age vary by jurisdiction. Check the rules that apply where you live.