Picks & the confidence score
How to read an Insiders pick card — the 0–99 confidence score, what drives it, the four stat chips, and the recommended bet size.
The pick card at a glance
Each row in the Insiders feed represents a single pick — one qualified wallet's position on one sports market. The card is designed so you can judge the strength of a signal without opening the detail view. Reading left to right on the desktop card: a confidence score, the event and selection, the best available sportsbook price, a recommended bet size, and four stat chips that summarise the wallet's behaviour on this pick.
The confidence score
The number in the top-left of every card is the confidence score, an integer from 0 to 99. Higher scores indicate that more of the signal's underlying factors are pointing in the same direction. The score combines three inputs:
- Wallet quality — a composite of the wallet's pregame ROI, sample size, consistency over the past 180 days, and breadth of pregame market coverage. A wallet with a large, consistent, pregame-focused track record produces a higher quality component than one with a thin or mixed record.
- Conviction — how much the wallet is risking on this pick relative to its historical average bet size. A wallet that typically places $1,000 per market and commits $5,000 here is expressing five times its usual conviction. Backtested across conviction bands, higher multiples corresponded to higher ROI: positions at 5x or more of the wallet's average historically returned around +31%, versus +0.8% for sub-quarter-average bets. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
- Slippage — the gap between the wallet's entry price and the current market price. If the price has moved against you since the wallet entered, that erodes the edge and the score falls. Price that has moved in your favour (a lower implied probability now than when the wallet bought) increases the score.
A score in the 90s means all three factors are strong simultaneously: a high-quality wallet, an unusually large bet, and a price that has barely moved since entry. Such picks are rare — in observed batches of live signals, fewer than 3% of picks score 90 or above.
Backtest result, not a guarantee
A historical backtest at confidence threshold 90 with a one-minute copy delay showed 47% ROI across resolved bets. This is a historical result on past Polymarket data, not a promise of future returns. Market conditions, wallet behaviour, and liquidity all change. Past backtest performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The stat chips
Below the score, four chips give you quick context on the pick without opening the detail view:
- Bet Size — the total USDC the wallet committed to this position, computed as the wallet's average entry price multiplied by the total shares acquired. This is the wallet's original stake; it does not shrink if the wallet has since sold a portion of the position.
- Entry Price — the wallet's average cost per share, expressed in cents. A price of 45¢ means the wallet paid 45 cents per outcome token, implying a 45% probability at entry.
- Relative Size — the conviction multiplier: this bet's size as a multiple of the wallet's historical average bet. A chip showing 3.2x means the wallet is risking 3.2 times its usual amount on this market.
- Sports ROI — the wallet's historical directional-only sports ROI, expressed as a percentage. This is the same ROI used to qualify the wallet and score its signals; it covers only directional positions (arbs excluded).
The price chip
The green pill next to the selection shows the current price at the recommended sportsbook. For prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) this displays in cents, matching how those platforms show prices. For traditional sportsbooks the price converts to your preferred odds format — American, decimal, or fractional — as set in your display preferences.
Tapping or clicking the price chip opens a direct link to the market at that sportsbook so you can check the line before acting.
The recommended bet size
The "Rec Bet" figure on the desktop card (and the share count with dollar equivalent on mobile) is a Kelly-criterion estimate based on your configured bankroll and Kelly fraction. The formula uses the wallet's sports ROI as the edge and the current sportsbook's implied odds as the payout multiple. If you have not set a bankroll in settings, the recommended size will show zero. Adjust your bankroll and Kelly fraction in the Insiders toolbar to calibrate it to your stake level.
The recommended size is an output of a mathematical model applied to a historical edge estimate. Treat it as a starting reference, not a prescribed wager. The Kelly criterion assumes the edge estimate is accurate and the bankroll is fully deployed — conditions that rarely hold exactly in practice.
Acting on a pick
Clicking the add button on any card opens the take flow where you can review the pick details, adjust the stake, and log the bet to your tracker. Taking a pick creates a Wager in the bet tracker with the tool type set to Insiders, so you can later filter and analyse your Insiders bets separately from other tracked bets.
For deeper context on any pick — price history, order-book depth, individual order fills, and the full wallet profile — open the detail panel by clicking anywhere on the card body. For more on the order-book view specifically, see Order book. To understand how the underlying wallets are evaluated and ranked, see Wallets & the leaderboard. For an overview of what the Insiders feature is and how the qualification process works, see What Insiders is.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Any numbers, screenshots, and worked examples shown are illustrative only. They are not representative of typical results and your results may differ.