Tailwind: find the prices sharp books just moved past

Sharp books often move first, and slower books can take a while to catch up. Tailwind is a new tool that finds that gap while it's open: your sharp books just moved toward a selection, and a slower book still offers a price with positive expected value.

Tailwind is pregame only and it's in beta. Full walkthrough in the docs: What Tailwind is.

See the gap while it's open

Every play answers the questions you'd ask about a move. Which sharp books moved? How far, in points of implied probability? How long ago? And how long has the slower book held its price?

That last one matters. A price set before the sharp move may still be waiting to catch up, while a price set after it means that book has already reacted.

A move doesn't mean a bet will win. It shows what the market did, and the price may be gone by the time you reach the book.

Decide if a move is worth chasing

Is this one book twitching, or several telling the same story? Each play breaks it down by sharp book: the old price, the new price, the size of the move, and when it happened.

You also get the prices across books and a line history narrowed to what matters, the book you'd bet and the sharp books that moved. The EV comes from the devigged sharp market, so you can compare the price against more than the move alone.

Decide what counts as a move

You set the bar for a play with 4 filters:

• Moved Within: how recent a move must be, from 15 to 90 minutes.
• Move Size: how far a sharp book must have moved, from 1 to 5 points of implied probability.
• Sharps Moving: how many of your sharp books must agree, from 1 to 3.
• Sharp Books: which books you trust as sharp.

A fast, strict setup might ask for 2 sharps moving at least 3 points in the last 15 minutes. Tailwind keeps its filters separate from Positive EV, so you can run each tool your own way.

See the plays you care about first

What matters most to you right now? Rank plays by EV, by the biggest move, by the most recent move, or by the most sharp books moving. Your choice stays on your device.

Track what you take

Tailwind fits in with the rest of SmartStake. It uses your bankroll and Kelly settings for bet sizing, and every bet you add is tagged as Tailwind in the Bet Tracker.

So you can ask how your Tailwind bets are doing in Performance, and check whether you're beating the close with closing line value. See a play that looks off? Report it like you would on any other tool.

Go take a look

Open Tailwind from the Tools menu, pick your sharp books, and set how big and how recent a move needs to be. It's in beta, so tell us what you think in Discord.

Relevant docs

• What Tailwind is: how plays, sorting, and filters work.
• Sharp books: what makes a book sharp.
• Expected value betting: what positive EV means.
• Devigging and fair value: how a fair price is worked out from the sharp market.
• Finding positive EV bets: how the Positive EV tool works.
• Bankroll, Kelly, and stake sizing: how your bet sizes are set.
• Bet Tracker overview: how wagers, grading, and settlement work.
• Performance charts: your results, filterable by tool.
• Closing line value: how CLV is measured.
• Troubleshooting: reporting a bet that looks off.