Live: tracking 200+ qualified sharp wallets

Follow the sharpest bettors on prediction markets

Discover sharp sports traders on Polymarket, choose who to follow, and forward-test every wallet from the moment you add it. Free during beta.

200+

Wallets discovered

You choose who to follow

We cast a broad net across 200+ wallets with notable sports track records on Polymarket. You browse their stats, pick the ones you trust, and build your own watchlist. Full control over which insiders you track.

Real-time signals

When a wallet you follow takes a new position on a pre-game sports market, you see it immediately with confidence score, bet sizing, and live market price.

Built-in forward testing

Every wallet gets timestamped when you add it. From that moment, all resolved positions are tracked as forward test results so you can see real, out-of-sample performance, not just historical stats.

Signal Feed

See what the sharps are buying

A live feed of insider positions across NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, ATP, and more. Each signal shows the confidence score, market type, selection, share price, bet size, conviction multiplier, and slippage, all at a glance.

92
💰 $8.2k🟫 49.0¢⬆ 11.9x💬 13.62%

Moneyline

Phoenix Suns

50.8¢

Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns

Today • 10:10pm • NBA

346 shares

$175

77
💰 $9.6k🟫 45.8¢⬆ 4.1x💬 3.25%

Moneyline

Miami Heat

49.7¢

Miami Heat Vs Toronto Raptors

Today • 7:40pm • NBA

81 shares

$40

74
💰 $510🟫 51.0¢⬆ 0.6x💬 11.98%

Moneyline

Houston Rockets

51.7¢

Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns

Today • 10:10pm • NBA

310 shares

$161

74
💰 $11.0k🟫 72.8¢⬆ 2.3x💬 2.74%

Moneyline

Sara Bejlek

51.7¢

Sara Bejlek Vs Panna Udvardy

Tomorrow • 4:00am • WTA

71 shares

$37

74
💰 $80🟫 16.0¢⬆ 0.5x💬 11.98%

Moneyline

Dallas Mavericks

17.4¢

Dallas Mavericks Vs Los Angeles Clippers

Today • 9:40pm • NBA

181 shares

$32

92
💰 $8.2k🟫 49.0¢⬆ 11.9x💬 13.62%

Moneyline

Phoenix Suns

50.8¢

Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns

Today • 10:10pm • NBA

346 shares

$175

77
💰 $9.6k🟫 45.8¢⬆ 4.1x💬 3.25%

Moneyline

Miami Heat

49.7¢

Miami Heat Vs Toronto Raptors

Today • 7:40pm • NBA

81 shares

$40

74
💰 $510🟫 51.0¢⬆ 0.6x💬 11.98%

Moneyline

Houston Rockets

51.7¢

Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns

Today • 10:10pm • NBA

310 shares

$161

74
💰 $11.0k🟫 72.8¢⬆ 2.3x💬 2.74%

Moneyline

Sara Bejlek

51.7¢

Sara Bejlek Vs Panna Udvardy

Tomorrow • 4:00am • WTA

71 shares

$37

74
💰 $80🟫 16.0¢⬆ 0.5x💬 11.98%

Moneyline

Dallas Mavericks

17.4¢

Dallas Mavericks Vs Los Angeles Clippers

Today • 9:40pm • NBA

181 shares

$32

Bet Detail

Understand every signal

Click into any signal to see why it scored the way it did. Relative bet size, insider sports ROI, total trades, price history with annotated entry points, order book depth, and individual order fills.

Why this bet?

Conviction multiplier, absolute bet size, and slippage from entry, color-coded so you know if the edge is still there.

Insider stats

Sports-specific ROI, total ROI, and trade count. Enough context to judge the source, not just the signal.

Price chart & order book

Interactive price chart with the insider's entry annotated. Live order book showing bids, asks, spread, and last trade.

Order fills

Every buy and sell the insider made: timestamps, prices, and sizes. Full transparency into how the position was built.

80+ Sportsbooks

Cross-reference with real odds

Every insider signal is joined with live odds data from 80+ sportsbooks. See how the prediction market price compares to the traditional sports betting market and find the best price to act on.

Historical odds from every book

Full price history across all sportsbooks for the same market. See how lines have moved and where the value is right now.

Side-by-side comparison

Compare the prediction market price against traditional sportsbook odds in one view. Spot discrepancies and find the sharpest line.

01The Core Thesis

Prediction markets can be inefficient. Some traders consistently outperform the market on sports. We surface them, you decide who to follow, and the tool tracks real performance from the moment you add them.

1. We cast a broad net

We continuously discover Polymarket wallets with notable sports betting activity — 200+ and growing. No pre-filtering, no curated shortlist. You see the full universe of candidates with their historical stats.

2. You choose who to follow

Browse wallet track records, ROI, sample sizes, and consistency. Add the ones you trust to your watchlist. Remove them anytime. You're in control of which insiders you track.

3. Get real-time signals

When a wallet you follow takes a new pre-game sports position, you see it immediately with the confidence score, bet sizing, and live market price.

4. Forward test automatically

Every wallet is timestamped when added. From that point, all new resolved positions are tracked as forward test results — real out-of-sample performance you can verify, not just historical stats.

02How We Evaluate Wallets

Anyone can get lucky over 10 bets. Over thousands of bets, luck averages out. We give you the stats to judge for yourself whether a wallet's track record is genuine, and the forward test to verify it going forward.

What you see

Every discovered wallet shows pregame ROI, sample size, consistency, win rate vs. implied probability, and sport-by-sport breakdowns. You can evaluate the full historical track record before deciding to follow.

On Polymarket, the price you pay is the implied probability. If you buy YES at 60c, the market thinks there's a 60% chance of YES. A wallet that consistently wins more than their entry prices predict is outperforming the market. We surface this data — comparing actual win rate against expected — so you can spot genuine edge, not just hot streaks.

The forward test

Historical stats tell you what did happen. The forward test tells you what happens next. When you add a wallet, we timestamp it. Every position resolved after that timestamp is tracked separately as a forward test result. This gives you a clean, out-of-sample record that the wallet can't retroactively inflate.

Why this matters

Past ROI alone doesn't prove edge. A hot streak can inflate returns. By separating historical performance from forward test results, you can independently verify whether a wallet's edge is real and ongoing — not just a backtest artifact.

03Confidence Scoring

Not all sharps are equal, and not all of their bets carry the same conviction. The confidence score captures both.

Wallet Quality

A composite of pregame ROI, sample size, consistency over the last 180 days, and pre-game market coverage. Better wallets produce higher scores.

Conviction

How much is the sharp risking relative to their normal bet? Measures true exposure (potential win), not just dollars wagered.

Slippage

How much has the price moved from the sharp's entry? Upward movement (edge eroding) penalizes the score. Price improvements boost it. Validated out-of-sample.

Why conviction matters

If a sharp's average bet is $1,000 and they drop $5,000 on a single market, that's a strong signal because they're sizing up. They have higher confidence in the outcome. A bet at or below their average tells you much less. We measure conviction as a multiple of the sharp's typical bet size.

04Forward Testing

Backtests tell you what would have happened. Forward testing tells you what actually happens. Every wallet you follow has its own forward test built in.

When you add a wallet to your watchlist, we record the exact timestamp. From that moment, every new position the wallet takes and every outcome that resolves is tracked as a forward test result, completely separate from historical stats. No cherry-picking, no hindsight filtering. You get a clean, verifiable record of how the wallet performs after you started watching.

Per wallet

Each wallet gets its own forward test from the moment you add it

Timestamped

Clear before/after boundary — historical stats vs. live results

Automatic

Every resolved position after the timestamp is tracked with no manual input

Why per-wallet forward testing matters

A wallet's historical ROI could reflect a hot streak that's already over. The forward test gives you an independent, out-of-sample track record that starts fresh when you do. If a wallet's forward test diverges from its historical stats, you'll see it and can remove them from your watchlist.

Forward test results depend on when you added each wallet and which positions resolved after that point. Your results will differ from other users who added the same wallet at a different time.

05Confidence Score Distribution

Here's how confidence scores are distributed across a typical batch of ~500 live signals.

90–99
13 (2.5%)
80–89
67 (13.5%)
70–79
139 (27.8%)
60–69
154 (30.9%)
50–59
71 (14.2%)

Most signals land in the 60–79 range. Higher scores (80+) reflect strong wallets betting with conviction at favorable prices — these are the ones worth paying attention to first.

Start tracking the sharps.

Free For a Limited Time

Important disclaimer: Wallet statistics shown in the app describe each wallet's past results. They do not prove that a wallet will maintain its edge going forward. Actual results may differ materially due to market conditions, liquidity, execution timing, and other factors. SmartStake does not guarantee any financial outcome. This tool provides data and analytics, not financial or investment advice. Sports betting and prediction market trading involve substantial risk of loss. Only wager what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET.